Daniel Jones has staged a remarkable turnaround these first three weeks, following his departure from the New York Giants. His dominant performances against the Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos, and Tennessee Titans have put the league on notice. Leading the league in yards per attempt, ranking third in total pass yards, and steering a team to a 3–0 record with 103 points over three games (the most in the league), Jones is a force to be reckoned with.

As Jones now leads the Indianapolis Colts after a tenure in New York that never fully clicked, one question looms: Is DJ17’s current success a stroke of luck, or is he set to transform the Colts into playoff contenders?

By analyzing his first three games, I’ll answer whether Jones’s success is driven by his skill or just the strength around him.

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts (9/07/25 — IND 33–8 MIA)

To start the season, the Colts blew the Dolphins out of the water, 33–8. Jones posted a 75.9% completion rate, 272 yards and a touchdown on 29 attempts, and added two rushing scores—personally accounting for more than half of Indy’s points.

On tape, he played exceptionally efficiently. The pocket calm stood out: one sack all game, with consistent footwork and timing. Whether that’s carryover from Kevin O’Connell’s coaching in Minnesota or a quick fit with Indy’s staff, the mechanics look sharper. He’s also not playing hero ball. Instead of forcing 50-yard shots every series, he’s taking what’s there, hitting playmakers in stride, and letting them work. Accuracy is the headline—far fewer throws left in harm’s way, more placement between leverage, and very few true misfires.

If there’s a nit, it’s that he occasionally settled for safer underneath throws instead of ripping the deeper in-breakers that were there.

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (9/14/25 — IND 29–28 DEN)

That nit got addressed immediately. Jones pushed vertical shots against an elite secondary and still kept the ball out of danger. He finished with 316 yards on 34 attempts, 2 TDs, 0 turnovers, and engineered a game-winning drive in the final seconds.

Everything from Miami held up—pocket management, timing, and accuracy—plus a willingness to challenge windows downfield without drifting into YOLO territory.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (9/21/25 — IND 41–20 TEN)

Another clean, decisive outing: 3 TDs, 0 turnovers, and a second blowout in three weeks. The operation looks on schedule, and the ball rarely courts disaster. Jones looks like the real deal.

Sustainability Check (Luck or Legit?)

• Pressure handling: One sack vs. Miami and minimal negative plays overall suggest improved pocket discipline, not just clean pockets.
• Shot selection: He added verticals vs. Denver without the turnover tax—aggressive, not reckless.
• Play to the supporting cast: Quick, accurate distribution maximizes YAC and keeps the offense ahead of the sticks.
• Where regression could bite: If protection slips or explosives dry up, efficiency could normalize—but the decision-making foundation is stronger than we’ve seen in years.

Conclusion

Through three games, Jones looks like a different quarterback: 71.6% completion rate and a 111.7 passer rating (through Week 3), with clean sheets and command at the line. Will that guarantee playoff success? Not by itself—injuries and the offensive line’s week-to-week health matter. But right now the profile leans skill over luck. If protection remains steady and he keeps balancing quick-game efficiency with selective deep shots, this isn’t a mirage. Don’t be surprised if the Colts stay in the race—and if Jones plays himself into a massive contract. He’s out to prove his worth. Be ready.